Ferox

Ferox Advisors. Ferocious Alpha.

Absolute Returns Asset Management Company managing client accounts and proprietary capital, with a focus on exchange listed derivatives and crypto currencies

2015 End of Year Update

Dear Investors & Friends,

We at Ferox Advisors wish you a marvelous 2016 and present to you a screen grab of the discretionary futures trades we published free of charge during 2015 also shared through my personal profile at Investing.com. 24 trades closed: 23 winners & 1 loser.  The greatest winner is greater than 10 %, while the lone loser was a mere -1.85 %.

At around 96 % accuracy, I believe it's fair to say we have been very generous and astoundingly accurate with our free discretionary give-aways in 2015. Stay tuned and Contact us to find out more about our discretionary portfolio as well as the fully automated intraday trading which just completes its 1st year track record in Jan 2016. 

 


Ferox Advisors Newsletter Q3 2014

It never troubles the wolf how many the sheep may be.” Virgil

Dear Investors & Friends,

A few months ago as the German 10 year interest rate synthetic derivative, Europe’s most famous fixed income product “the Bund Future” was trading around 145 (EUR nominal), if you had sat down with the world’s greatest Bund traders and asked them what they would do if they could envisage this instrument surpassing 150, arguably 9 out of 10 of them would even sell their shirt and take it to the bank to increase their short positions.

As we closed August just a couple of days ago, the Bund Future stood at 151.5, and the general sentiment in the market was that the rally could easily go on a further 2-3 Euros. While I was debating the pros and cons of increasing my positions with a few of the most renowned Bund traders of the past, I had an epiphany. We hadn’t yet made any money on this trade, and the Bundesbank and the Ukrainian crisis were showing no signs of respite. In thinking that this was an anomaly and we were looking at an opportunity of historic proportions, we were almost about to convert ourselves and our past Bund profitability into an anomaly as we took higher and higher risk on what looked like a once in a lifetime instance that had no probabilistic relevance because it was so specific, too specific and singular in fact to be considered for serious trading.

Chasing black swan events and then taking aggressive risk had often paid off for us in the past and might pay off on discretionary instances for some people. The kid who got rich by betting on TSLA options when it was 10 USD and increased his positions when it was 80, and finally cashed out at 200. The initial 500k USD sponsors of Facebook… The pit trader who shorted Silver as it briefly breached 50 USD when some people were expecting it to go as high as 1000 USD. All very impressive bar-counter stories; however none of them can be replicated or enhanced into a system or strategy because of their extreme “tail event” particularistic states. Not to mention, for any of these one time - one trick fortune stories, there is an equivalent number of catastrophic tales of bankruptcy that are also initiated by similarly discretionary and unique courses of action and circumstances.

The epiphany I had helped me formulate the phraseology for our new fully automated trading strategy which is launching September 1st and will be publicly available on a fund status in 2015 after we offer it with privileged purely profit sharing deals to our existing investor network in the year 2014. As we were back testing and forward testing an algorithm that completely removes the human element from analysis and execution during the course of 2014, I saw the genius of consistency in automated trading and why it is both the way of the future and the most probable path to wealth creation.

Contrary to my previous newsletters, I will not be citing any numbers or percentage figures for performance on this one; the future will reveal itself in a very brisk and astonishing manner to all those involved with us. I will only outline some of the basic principles on which I have built the fully automated Ferox Strategy 1:

1) Win in at least 60 % of trades where the profit target is always equal or greater than the stop loss.

2) Trade in at least 20 instruments to achieve a minimum frequency of at least 1 trade / day

3) Have the number of consecutive winners at least double the number of consecutive losers, while ascertaining that in no product the consecutive loss streak accumulates to over 3 % of the original account during any period. 

I leave it to you and your brokerage statements to determine precisely how much wealth you can accumulate if simply these three conditions are met, and I invite you to give us a chance to demonstrate to you that this is mathematically the most modest glance into what our new strategy is capable of achieving.

 

Warm Regards,

Deniz Akguner

 

Ferox Advisors 2014 1st Qtr Newsletter

"It is not sufficient that I succeed - all others must fail."   Genghis Khan

WOMAN AND WOLF.png

Dear Investors and Friends,

We launched Ferox Advisors on July 2013 and finished the second half of 2013 with a 15 % Return on Equity in just under five months of trading, so at above 30 % annualized returns while never risking more than 2.5 % equity / month, we are  already exceeding global hedge fund benchmarks on similar risk levels by a good margin.   

While an objectively promising beginning, I am not even remotely satisfied. Like Genghis Khan, I also believe in outcompeting the market not only in my own niche financial sector, but across the entire discovered range of meaningful human endeavor, and then heralding that frontier even further up. I want every winner in the world to wake up in the morning and say, “how can I get a chance to invest in Ferox Advisors today”.  Having had the honor of working side by side with some of the most profitable proprietary traders of the last decade, I have resurrected and revised the ancient art of scalping futures naked to a state of being which I believe can now transform even the nerdy casual gamer into a 300 million USD earning warrior trader within a year or two. We are out there to make new Paul Rotter’s out of reasonably good investors with sound character.

With the advent of widespread retail electronic trading, exchange based financial activity has become the ultimate global battleground. Now everyone, from the virtuoso hedge fund manager to the absolute dilettante looking for a gambling streak, can instantaneously interact in financial markets from virtually any location in the globe with an internet connection. Such increased activity levels and vigilance of human reaction (vast majority of which is also now undoubtedly automated) inevitably bring up new trading dynamics, the necessity for new strategies, and new opportunities of profit hitherto unrecorded in the annals of financial history.  Therefore we are pleased to upgrade our strategy bundle, starting February 2014, with the following innovative elements, and we say innovative with an unmatched degree of confidence because team Ferox Advisors originally conceived and improved upon the majority of these strategies:

  1) Naked Futures

 2) Momentum Futures

 3) Positional Options

With strategies 2 & 3 combined we aim to surpass 40 % RoE / annum while never risking more than 3% monthly drawdown. And with my newest offering number 1 “Naked Futures”, whilst also catering to all risk appetite tranches, I have one singular purpose in mind: to at least double that performance, thereby attaining 80% gross RoE or above, every single year.

Contact us today for an in depth discussion of how we can help you achieve benchmark smashing returns, backed by audited reports of realized trading activity going as far back as 5 years, and accomplished from 2013 onwards exclusively by our youthful company Ferox Advisors Ltd. 

 

Warm Regards,

Deniz Akguner

 

 

April – May Update: “Viewpoint” for Volatility

Hi, just a quick entry this time, quoted from my comments to Hedge Fund Review:

First a close to close (daily) approach to calculating realized volatility:

Volt,n =the realized volatility of the Index for an n number of trading days (including t day) as of the t day

Et =Closing value of the Index on t day
n =Number of days for which volatility is calculated

Historical volatility data are calculated on a daily basis for 21, 42, 63, 126, and 252 trading days

Any investor interested in making a play in the derivatives markets should first acknowledge that Volatility, the most enigmatic component which affects derivatives prices is just a number, a man made synthetic construct inserted into the models to make them resemble the instinctive fluctuations in nature more closely, but not precisely.

The Black Scholes Model, later with the much favored skew amendment, is still in use today as a standard tool so competing marketmakers and exchanges can unanimously agree on a reference model and proceed to quote their exchange traded products tighter and tighter to invite further investor interest. Driven by competitiveness and this kind of synthetic understanding implied between market makers, the exchange traded derivatives markets have taken a life of their own almost independent of what the price action indicates in terms of real life expectation. In other words, it should be lucid to any participant that regardless of the underlying reasons for price movement, under all circumstances derivatives pricing and its essential variable volatility are driven by the positions of the books of the marketmakers, and thus indirectly the investor interest that initiates these positions.

The opportunity for arbitrage for the brilliant investor then lies in the discrepancy between the volatility indicated by the price of the derivative vs the real life volatility, or what I call natural volatility, which is the topic of another entry.

 

What is Trading ? (Part 3)

Alexander vs King Porus of India.

Fortune favors the brave, and so Alexander the Great must have thought. He became Alexander, reached the haunted palace of Nebuchadnezzar 2, the enigmatic King of the Neo-Babylonians, and the rest is history. 

Whilst an Afghan Mujahid is ready to die for a piece of the desert sand, and as a Somalian mercenary in Mogadishu is building trenches on city streets to have some bread for dinner, what stakes can you handle in your “peaceful” quest to wealth accumulation ?

In its essence, every trade is a claim to nobility, an implied assertion that you are better than all of these people; that you can just sit in front of your laptop screen in the Bahamas, or pick up the phone from the comfort of your Parnian Furniture bedroom and create wealth in a way that is infinitely more comfortable than what billions are attempting every day. All the more prepared than these billions you must be then, when the time inevitably arrives to test your Will to this regal alchemical privilege.

The fluctuation of numbers flowing through the screens of a trader is an illusion. The real strife that makes and destroys people, is the underlying reality of survival and the Will, the Claim to Glory on an eternal scale. Alexander understood this, and he went on to seek out the most glorious civilizations known to men in his time, to conquer it all to become a world historical individual whose Moment of greatness shines eternally on the human experience. The Moment, which becomes Eternal; I’m sure Hegel liked Alexander as well.

Win your immortality, trade to conquer it all, or just let me do it for you.

That is the underlying principle in all of my trades: Trading to not only defeat, but to outclass all competition. And trading not to win some scraps from a niche pie of financial services, but to preoccupy the dreams of fortune seekers in every walk of life, from any generation. There can be absolutely no unpleasant surprises in trading, when you play to defeat everyone, everywhere.

More on the specifics of my absolutist methods in derivatives trading on the next post, stay tuned. 

©2019 Ferox Advisors Ltd.